UK economic growth slows sharply

The UK economy grew 0.2% in the second quarter of the year, as the credit crunch took its toll on the housing market and consumer spending.

The figure is the lowest growth quarter-on-quarter for three years.

It grew 1.6% on the same quarter a year ago, also the weakest growth for three years, and much lower than the 2.3% growth seen in the first quarter.

Economists had expected GDP growth to slip to 0.2%, and some are warning that a recession is likely.

Housing slowdown

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the slowdown was driven by the 0.7% fall in construction output, the biggest drop since the third quarter of 2005.

Construction companies have announced several thousand job cuts in recent months as the housing boom has stumbled to a halt.

The construction sector only accounts for 6% of the economy.

Industrial production has also fallen 0.5% in the quarter, the second successive drop.

And crucially, the service sector, which constitutes 74% of GDP, has also slowed. Output in the services sector rose 2.1% on the same period a year ago, the weakest annual growth since 1992.

Within the services sector, the transport, storage and communications category rose 2.2% on the quarter, the biggest rise since 2000.

Recession fears

The latest data heightens fears that the UK economy could enter a recession, and recent surveys by the CBI indicate that manufacturing output is likely to fall further.

Paul Dales, UK economist at Capital Economics, said: "An outright recession is now our central scenario. With industrial production having fallen in both Q1 and Q2, industry is already in recession.

"Looking ahead, the more up-to-date surveys suggest that in Q3 so far, overall economic growth has ground to a complete halt."

Interest rates will eventually need to fall, he added. "The recent drop in the oil price and the price wars on the petrol forecourts support our view that the next rate cut could come late this year, but this will be too late to prevent a recession," he said.

Added ING's James Knightley: "In terms of the outlook, we look for even weaker growth and possible contraction in Q3 and Q4."

Future decisions on interest rates also hinge on inflation, with rising oil and food prices pushing costs up across the world.

Alan Clarke, at BNP Paribas, said: "Growth has been much worse than (the Bank of England) expected. What really counts is what that does to the two-year ahead outlook for inflation."

British economic 'horror movie' to continue: think-tank

Britain's economic 'horror movie' will continue in the months to come, with growth slowing considerably, while unemployment will rise and inflation will remain above government targets, an influential economic forecasting group said on Monday.

The Item Club, which is backed by accounting giant Ernst and Young, predicts Britain's economy will grow by one percent in 2009, much slower than finance minister Alistair Darling's own forecasts of 2.25-2.75 percent, made when he delivered the annual budget in March.

Its report comes after Darling himself said in a newspaper interview published Saturday that the economic downturn here would be more "profound" than he expected, adding that the economic picture was "at the bottom end" of his range.

The forecasting group said that while the picture was not as bleak as the struggles that preceded a recession in the early 1990s, it was imperative that wages be kept in check so as not to let inflation, already at a 16-year high of 3.8 percent annually, get out of control.

"As with any horror movie, there is an escape route but it is not an easy one," the report read.

"It is imperative that wage increases remain restrained, despite the tremendous pressure from food and energy cost inflation... A general outbreak of wage inflation would spell disaster, requiring much higher interest rates and a recession in output to get inflation back under control."

According to the Item Club, house prices will drop on average by about 10 percent through this year, and a further six percent through 2009, and year-on-year inflation will remain above the government's two percent target for the coming 12 months.

Unemployment, meanwhile, will rise to two million by 2010, compared to 1.6 million at the end of last year.

"Both on the high street and in the housing market, it is going to get a great deal worse before it gets better," Item Club Chief Economist Peter Spencer said.

He added: "Consumers will inevitably cut back on non-essential spending in the face of the impact of rising food and energy prices on their discretionary incomes."

Japan keeps interest rate on hold

Japan's central bank has left interest rates on hold and cut its forecast for growth amid concerns about rising costs and signs of an economic slowdown.

The Bank of Japan voted to keep the benchmark rate at 0.5% - the same level it has been at since February 2007.

At the same time it lowered its economic growth forecast for the year to March 2009 to 1.2% from 1.5%.

Soaring gas and food prices and rising material costs are weighing on the world's second-largest economy.

There are also worries that Japan's heavy dependence on exports means it is vulnerable to the slowdown in the US.

"Economic growth is slowing further reflecting weaker growth in business fixed investment and private consumption against the backdrop of high energy and material prices," the BoJ said.

"With regard to risk factors, global financial markets remain unstable and there are downside risks to the US and the world economy," it added, saying that global inflationary pressure was increasing.

The BoJ said that growth in 2009/10 would be 1.5%, compared with 1.7% in April.